So, it's the George Bush coalition that Arnold Schwarzenegger finds suporting him these days. Which would be nice if he were Governor of, say, Idaho, but is a terrible terrible place for a California politician to be.
New polls released today by the Public Policy Institute of California were covered by most newspapers, but I paid special attention to Carla Marinucci's story in the SF Chronicle.
The poll results are a compendium of terrible news for the Disgracinator. He finds himself with job approval ratings of between 34 and 40% (depending on which subset is asked), which is right in line with George Bush's numbers in California. Whoops, guess that opportunity to re-make the Republican party as a permanent governing majority has slipped out of Schwarzenegger's fingers. His spokespeople continue to lie and blame it on being outspent on television; don't believe it for one second, they are running just as many ads as their opponents. The cuase of his trouble is his own mis-managment, bad advice, and greed for corporate donations.
The poll also lays out the long, hot autumn of Schwarzenegger's discontent. Every single initiaitve that he placed on the ballot is losing: extending teacher tenure, mid-term re-districting, and budget changes. Also losing is an anti-choice initiative that his allies put on the ballot.
Winning however, 58-39, is the initiative, Prop. 75, that would restrict the ability of public employees to spend their union dues money on political and policy debates. As the nurses union, we are watching this one very closely because all of our patients will suffer if the only voices in healthcare debates belong to corporate medicine. This proposition is big news nationally; it has the ability to forever alter California's progressive nature and to spark similar referenda in other states. However, we've beaten these before, and we'll beat this one now. Let me sketch out for you the winning message: "Governor Arnold Scwharzenegger endorses Proposition 75." That should pretty much sink it. With a sub-message: "Arnold Schwarzenegger is using Prop. 75 to attack nurses, firefighters, and teachers. Again." High stakes, but high hopes.
Carla scores a quote from the poll director:
"The governor has a big challenge ahead of him,'' said Mark Baldassare, research director for the San Francisco-based Public Policy Institute of California, which took the poll of 2,004 state residents -- including 1,556 registered voters and 988 likely voters -- from Aug. 8-15.
Baldassare said the findings suggest "the governor will have to change a lot of minds about his propositions at a time when many voters are skeptical about his overall ability to lead the state, and the direction that he is taking in terms of reforming California government.'' ...
But Baldassare said the governor's rapidly eroding numbers among independent and Democratic voters who backed him in the 2003 recall election are a problem area as he heads toward the special election.
"As a Republican governor, he needs help from outside his party, and he needs strong support from independents and Democrats,'' Baldassare said. But "right now, his approval ratings are similar to George Bush,'' who gets positive ratings from just 38 percent of state residents, the latest poll showed.
And just to top it all off, one final bit of bad news:
-- Schwarzenegger has lost ground with voter groups he won over during the 2003 recall election, particularly Latinos, the state's fastest-growing voter block -- who now disapprove of his performance by whopping 73 percent.
You have it wrong again:
Prop 75 simply forces the unions to get permission from individual members before they can spend certain kinds of membership dues for political activity. Since often times unions support political causes much of the membership doesn't support, that seems fair to me.
Not to worry, though. There's enough peer pressure amongst many union members that few will want to get in hot water with their fellow members for refusing to give permission so there won't be any big change in the status quo should Prop 75 pass.
Posted by: Fred Mangels | August 27, 2005 at 08:22 AM