John Judis in the New Republic (free registration required) wonders just what the h-e-double-hockey-sticks happened to Schwarzenegger on his way to the coronation. Judis suspects that California may just be ungovernable, that it is too complex and dysfunctional now for anyone to make it work--let alone a b-movie actor/bodybuilder.
Judis writes:
"It's easy to see Schwarzenegger's fall simply as the result of his political
inexperience, except for one important fact: Schwarzenegger's pattern of
failure is nearly identical to that of his more battle-tested predecessors,
Republican Pete Wilson and Democrat Gray Davis. Like Schwarzenegger, both
Wilson and Davis ran as centrists: Wilson was pro-choice; Davis avidly
courted business. Based on their initial popularity, both men came to harbor
presidential ambitions. But, like Schwarzenegger, they fell from grace.
Wilson's approval rating had fallen to 40 percent on the eve of the 1994
gubernatorial election. He won reelection largely because he ran a
successful negative campaign against a gaffe-prone opponent. Wilson's
approval rating remained below 50 percent for his second term. Davis's
approval was only 39 percent on the eve of his reelection against an even
weaker opponent, and he, of course, was recalled by voters in October 2003.
As these similarities suggest, Schwarzenegger's difficulties as governor
have more to do with California than with his own ineptitude. Over the last
30 years, the Golden State has developed economic and political fault lines
that have made it difficult for any governor to succeed. These divisions
separate business and labor, and they limit options for the legislature and
for the governor. They undermine the ability of legislators and governors to
act in California's long-term interest. And, after an initial electoral
success, they make genuine--rather than simply cosmetic--centrism difficult,
if not impossible. Schwarzenegger could have delayed his own fall, or made
it less precipitous. But, given the state of California politics, a fall was
almost inevitable.
Judis tips his hat to the role nurses have played in Schwarzenegger Year of Discontent, and I appreciate that, but it seems possible that Schwarzenegger might have succeeded if he hadn't married incompetence to greed, and put his personal and political fortunes ahead of the needs of everyday Californians. It's like alternate history. We just can't know. And that's a shame.
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