How Did We Get Here? (Parts I and II)

Just how did Arnold Schwarzenegger get to the unlucky place he is today-free-falling in the polls, and with his political fortunes tied to an election that the voters didn't want and don't like?

The press has two suggestions for us.  Beth Fouhy in the AP looks at the harried last days of negotiating between Schwarzenegger and leading Dems.   She notes:

"Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democratic legislative leaders tried for weeks to cut a deal over the Nov. 8 special election that Schwarzenegger called last June, hoping to avoid a nasty and expensive election season. The two sides said they wanted to compromise on the governor's "year of reform" measures and march into the fall campaign united on a common slate of propositions.

Instead, Schwarzenegger and the Democratic and union forces that oppose his agenda will spend tens of millions of dollars on an election that 60 percent of voters don't want this year, according to a recent poll.

Dan Walters in the Sacramento Bee takes a macro view.  He writes:

"Schwarzenegger's abrupt changes of rhetorical course, his cheap media stunts and the utter incompetence of his advisers in devising the reform drive left him very vulnerable….Given his screw-ups, it's no wonder that recent polls show that Schwarzenegger's public approval ratings have been chopped in half, from the 65-70 percent range to the 35-40 percent range, and that two of his three measures on the Nov. 8 special election ballot are similarly unpopular.

Walters is the lastest to notice the ticking clock on Arnold's plans for a second term.  Would you want this job if you were him?  Probably not.  But the problem is, his corporate backers just might snap shut the purse if he doesn't say he's with them for the next five years.  Call him the Conundrumnator.

Having failed to cut a compromise deal with Democratic legislators on the ballot measures, Schwarzenegger now has no choice but to wage the kind of political war that he talks about but has not yet been willing to fight. And it will probably begin with a declaration that he's running for re-election next year no matter what happens on Nov. 8 - a virtual demand of those he needs for campaign support. …