Stop Arnold Weblog

Yes to Fundraising; No to Governing

Have you ever been booed by 40,000 people?  Neither had Arnold Schwarzenegger.  Until last night, that is.

Schwarzenegger just wanted to have a quiet night at the ballpark, scheming with his corporate buddies and raising money off the national pasttime--he was holding a $10,000 per person fundraiser there.

Unfortunately for him, the nurses dubbed it California Nurses Night at the Ballpark, and hundreds turned out , along with our teacher and firefighter allies, to lead the booing against the disgracinator.  Another bad day for Schwarzenegger.  Gillian Flaccus from the AP covers the story.

Matier & Ross in the SF Chronicle have what may well be a big political mistake for this failed Governor.  Politicians ignore the Central Valley at their own peril in this state.  The opening of the University of California--Merced campus is a major moment in the life of the Valley...and Arnold is skipping it.  To do what?  I dunno...fundraise?

Failed State

John Judis in the New Republic (free registration required) wonders just what the h-e-double-hockey-sticks happened to Schwarzenegger on his way to the coronation.  Judis suspects that California may just be ungovernable, that it is too complex and dysfunctional now for anyone to make it work--let alone a b-movie actor/bodybuilder.

Judis writes:

"It's easy to see Schwarzenegger's fall simply as the result of his political
inexperience, except for one important fact: Schwarzenegger's pattern of
failure is nearly identical to that of his more battle-tested predecessors,
Republican Pete Wilson and Democrat Gray Davis. Like Schwarzenegger, both
Wilson and Davis ran as centrists: Wilson was pro-choice; Davis avidly
courted business. Based on their initial popularity, both men came to harbor
presidential ambitions. But, like Schwarzenegger, they fell from grace.
Wilson's approval rating had fallen to 40 percent on the eve of the 1994
gubernatorial election. He won reelection largely because he ran a
successful negative campaign against a gaffe-prone opponent. Wilson's
approval rating remained below 50 percent for his second term. Davis's
approval was only 39 percent on the eve of his reelection against an even
weaker opponent, and he, of course, was recalled by voters in October 2003.

As these similarities suggest, Schwarzenegger's difficulties as governor
have more to do with California than with his own ineptitude. Over the last
30 years, the Golden State has developed economic and political fault lines
that have made it difficult for any governor to succeed. These divisions
separate business and labor, and they limit options for the legislature and
for the governor. They undermine the ability of legislators and governors to
act in California's long-term interest. And, after an initial electoral
success, they make genuine--rather than simply cosmetic--centrism difficult,
if not impossible. Schwarzenegger could have delayed his own fall, or made
it less precipitous. But, given the state of California politics, a fall was
almost inevitable.

Judis tips his hat to the role nurses have played in Schwarzenegger Year of Discontent, and I appreciate that, but it seems possible that Schwarzenegger might have succeeded if he hadn't married incompetence to greed, and put his personal and political fortunes ahead of the needs of everyday Californians.  It's like alternate history.  We just can't know.  And that's a shame.

How Did We Get Here? (Parts I and II)

Just how did Arnold Schwarzenegger get to the unlucky place he is today-free-falling in the polls, and with his political fortunes tied to an election that the voters didn't want and don't like?

The press has two suggestions for us.  Beth Fouhy in the AP looks at the harried last days of negotiating between Schwarzenegger and leading Dems.   She notes:

"Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democratic legislative leaders tried for weeks to cut a deal over the Nov. 8 special election that Schwarzenegger called last June, hoping to avoid a nasty and expensive election season. The two sides said they wanted to compromise on the governor's "year of reform" measures and march into the fall campaign united on a common slate of propositions.

Instead, Schwarzenegger and the Democratic and union forces that oppose his agenda will spend tens of millions of dollars on an election that 60 percent of voters don't want this year, according to a recent poll.

Dan Walters in the Sacramento Bee takes a macro view.  He writes:

"Schwarzenegger's abrupt changes of rhetorical course, his cheap media stunts and the utter incompetence of his advisers in devising the reform drive left him very vulnerable….Given his screw-ups, it's no wonder that recent polls show that Schwarzenegger's public approval ratings have been chopped in half, from the 65-70 percent range to the 35-40 percent range, and that two of his three measures on the Nov. 8 special election ballot are similarly unpopular.

Walters is the lastest to notice the ticking clock on Arnold's plans for a second term.  Would you want this job if you were him?  Probably not.  But the problem is, his corporate backers just might snap shut the purse if he doesn't say he's with them for the next five years.  Call him the Conundrumnator.

Having failed to cut a compromise deal with Democratic legislators on the ballot measures, Schwarzenegger now has no choice but to wage the kind of political war that he talks about but has not yet been willing to fight. And it will probably begin with a declaration that he's running for re-election next year no matter what happens on Nov. 8 - a virtual demand of those he needs for campaign support. …

Greedy Not Green

Remember when Schwarzenegger was a 'different' kind of Republican--among other things, he was 'green'?  Well funny thing, that.  He got into office...took a lot of $$$ from corporations and polluters...and is now not so green anymore.  Funny.  Or not.  Jordan Rau and Miguel Bustillo in the LA Times write about this transformation.

When It Rains, It Monsoons

So, it's the George Bush coalition that Arnold Schwarzenegger finds suporting him these days.  Which would be nice if he were Governor of, say, Idaho, but is a terrible terrible  place for a California politician to be.

New polls released today by the Public Policy Institute of California were covered by most newspapers, but I paid special attention to Carla Marinucci's story in the SF Chronicle. 

The poll results are a compendium of terrible news for the Disgracinator.    He finds himself with job approval ratings of between 34 and 40% (depending on which subset is asked), which is right in line with George Bush's numbers in California.  Whoops, guess that opportunity to re-make the Republican party as a permanent governing majority has slipped out of Schwarzenegger's fingers.  His spokespeople continue to lie and blame it on being outspent on television; don't believe it for one second, they are running just as many ads as their opponents.  The cuase of his trouble is his own mis-managment, bad advice, and greed for corporate donations.

The poll also lays out the long, hot autumn of Schwarzenegger's discontent.  Every single initiaitve that he placed on the ballot is losing:  extending teacher tenure, mid-term re-districting, and budget changes.  Also losing is an anti-choice initiative that his allies put on the ballot.

Winning however, 58-39, is the initiative, Prop. 75,  that would restrict the ability of public employees to spend their union dues money on political and policy debates.  As the nurses union, we are watching this one very closely because all of our patients will suffer if the only voices in healthcare debates belong to corporate medicine.  This proposition is big news nationally; it has the ability to forever alter California's progressive nature and to spark similar referenda in other states.  However, we've beaten these before, and we'll beat this one now.  Let me sketch out for you the winning message: "Governor Arnold Scwharzenegger endorses Proposition 75."  That should pretty much sink it.  With a sub-message: "Arnold Schwarzenegger is using Prop. 75 to attack nurses, firefighters, and teachers.  Again."  High stakes, but high hopes. 

Carla scores a quote from the poll director:

"The governor has a big challenge ahead of him,'' said Mark Baldassare, research director for the San Francisco-based Public Policy Institute of California, which took the poll of 2,004 state residents -- including 1,556 registered voters and 988 likely voters -- from Aug. 8-15.

Baldassare said the findings suggest "the governor will have to change a lot of minds about his propositions at a time when many voters are skeptical about his overall ability to lead the state, and the direction that he is taking in terms of reforming California government.'' ...

But Baldassare said the governor's rapidly eroding numbers among independent and Democratic voters who backed him in the 2003 recall election are a problem area as he heads toward the special election.

"As a Republican governor, he needs help from outside his party, and he needs strong support from independents and Democrats,'' Baldassare said. But "right now, his approval ratings are similar to George Bush,'' who gets positive ratings from just 38 percent of state residents, the latest poll showed.

And just to top it all off, one final bit of bad news:

-- Schwarzenegger has lost ground with voter groups he won over during the 2003 recall election, particularly Latinos, the state's fastest-growing voter block -- who now disapprove of his performance by whopping 73 percent.

The Los Angeles Times' Team Schwarzenegger--Bob Salladay and Peter Nicholas--report that the Governor of California is receiving free rent and unreported campaign contributions from a variety of corporate interests cloaking themselves as non-profit organizations.

They write:

"Other elected officials also raise money through nonprofit groups. But Schwarzenegger campaigned on creating an open government answerable to the public. His use of the nonprofit groups has the opposite effect, ethics watchdogs said.

State and federal laws allow groups performing a broadly defined "public benefit" to operate tax exempt. But the lack of disclosure requirements means potential conflicts of interests between the governor and his contributors remain hidden, allowing powerful donors to curry favor with Schwarzenegger behind the scenes, they said.

"This is an end run around the campaign finance laws," said Larry Noble, executive director of the Center for Responsive Politics in Washington. "It does away with the contribution limits and it avoids disclosure, and it's a way for the special interests who are supporting him to buy access and buy influence."

Nicholas and Salladay make very clear that people who are making these virtually-unlimited contributions have pressing business before the state.  They write:

"The $1 million came from a variety of firms affected by state actions. Wells Fargo Bank, which regularly lobbies the government on mortgage issues, student lending and identity theft, gave $100,000. This year, Wells Fargo is pushing for or actively opposing two dozen bills in the Legislature, state records show.

Catholic Healthcare West, a group of 40 hospitals in California and the Southwest, also gave $100,000 to the jobs commission. Last year, Schwarzenegger issued an emergency order to relax nurse-patient ratios at hospitals — a move meant to reduce the financial burden on a hospital industry facing a nursing shortage.

Last week we learned that the Governor's top aides, who work for the state full-time, also get checks from his campaign arm--checks supported by the corporate donors.  This week we learn that Schwarzenegger doesn't know which of his donors are the ones who are ponying up to pay his rent.

This is the issue.  The people of California have a unique opportunity here. 

Arnold Schwarzenegger can and should be  driven from office because of excessive corporate fundraising, and all the deceitful webs that it creates.  It will directly benefit the millions of everyday Californians who have suffered as a result of his hard-hearted policies, and it will be a seminal event in the much larger battle to reclaim our democracy from free-spending corporations.  California will never have true democracy until we get the dirty money out of the system--which ironically was a point Schwarzenegger made during the recall.  The momentum we build by terminating Schwarzenegger can be turned into momentum for an Arizona or Maine-style clean elections.

Another Disaster for Sticky Fingers Schwarzenegger

It must have sounded so good when the fundraisers pitched it to him: an uber-exclusive, $100,000 fundraiser to be held at the Rolling Stones concert tour kick-off at Fenway Park.

Well let's see what went wrong:

-He didn't sell any of those tickets, the Boston Herald reported, and had to do a firesale at the the $10k price

-California's nurses followed him there, and in conjunction with Mass nurses, teachers, and firefighters, did a great deal of public outreach in Boston.

-As a result he was roundly booed when Mick Jagger introduced him to the crowd...and Jagger went so far as to say, "People come from all over the world to see their concerts and there are people here from California tonight [loud cheers from the crowd--they knew he meant the nurses].  Governor Arnold Schwarzeneggar is here tonight [loud booing from the crowd], he is having a fund-raiser. As a matter of fact, he was seen out in front of Fenway park tonight raising funds by scalping tickets and tee-shirts."

-This latest press fiasco was covered by multiple U.S. newspapers and TV Stations, CNN, FOX News, and even lots of foreign press. 

The point being?  Even people outside California are learning what a corporate sleaze this Governor is.  Time for him to wonder if he's starting to damage his film career.  Goodbye $20 million paychecks?

The AP and Boston Globe write it up here, and report:

Protesters chanted "Arnold, Arnold you're no good, go on back to Hollywood" and carried signs, including some that read "Sticky Fingers for corrupt corporate cash," a reference to the classic 1971 Stones album, "Sticky Fingers."

The Boston Herald covered it all week before the event and afterward.

The Full Employment Political Consultant Act of 2005

When political consultants get contracts for elections, they can win big commissions--sometimes 15% of the take.  So if, say, the Schwarzenegger side spends a total of $250 million propagandizing for this special, that means that Republican operatives will be dividing a kitty among themselves of $37.5 million.

Much of that will be concentrated among just a few (white, male) insiders.  But after they're done, there will be plenty of scraps to toss around for the littler fish.  And this is on top of what they're already planning on earning for the June, 2006 races.

Any wonder that Schwarzenegger's handlers have pushed him into this  ill-conceived Waterloo of an election?  Harrison Shepard in the LA Daily News sets the stage--and in doing so gets two very illuminating quotes, one from the spokesperson for Assembly leader Nunez, one from Schwarzenegger himself:

Steve Maviglio, a spokesman for Nuez, said that while Democrats tried in good faith to bargain a compromise measure, they remain confident that the governor's measures will fail.

"Right now they're polling poorly all across the board," Maviglio said. "There's not a whole lot of incentive to have this election in the first place. We've said before it's a big election about nothing. Californians by a wide majority don't want this election and I think they'll express that in November."....

"Campaigns are all about getting the information out there and to be courteous," Schwarzenegger said Thursday. "I try to be above all the big fighting and all this."

Remember when the over-pumped Arnold used to go around insulting everyone?  The word for his current state of mind is 'cowed.'

Target's the Target

One of the interesting things about the Schwarzenegger era has been the way that public brands are sponsoring his corporate agenda.  Corporations like Target, Dreyer's, Williams-Sonoma have apparently felt no risk in putting their image behind Schwarzenegger.  Dreyer's even got paid back with some product placement in a Schwarzenegger tv commercial.

Now, however, as Arnold Schwarzenegger has become less popular than even George Bush in California, those companies are at risk of a backlash, both from voters and  aggrieved politicians in the post-Schwarzenegger era.

It may be happening already with Target.  One consumer group has launched tv ads criticizing them for their Schwarzen-dollars.  John Wildermuth writes about it in the SF Chronicle and describes the ad:

"Target Corporation is one of Arnold Schwarzenegger's biggest special interest donors -- money he's using to promote his agenda against consumers and affordable health care,'' the announcer says.

"Well snap my girdle,'' the elderly shopper answers. "They're using our money against us."

The ad slams Schwarzenegger for taking money from drug companies and vetoing a bill that would have made it easier to bring lower-priced drugs into the state from

Canada

.

Arnold Can't Get No Satisfaction

Yesterday the Boston Herald reported that Schwarzenegger is having to cut the ticket price at his Rolling Stones fundraiser in Boston from $100k each to $20k each...and he's moving onto the field and out of the private box.

Today, they write:

The Rolling Stones, who have managed to stay mostly apolitical for their 40-plus years in the limelight, find themselves in the middle of a bipartisan brouhaha as they kick off their American tour at Fenway Park.

     Whilst their new tune ``Sweet Neo Con'' is rankling conservatives, liberals and union activists are annoyed that California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is throwing a $10,000- to $100,000-a-head fund-raiser at Sunday's show.
     ``It's kind of amusing,'' said band publicist Fran Curtis, ``one day we're getting yelled at over `Sweet Neo Con' and another day about Schwarzenegger. In a world where everyone's entitled to have an opinion, we don't ask people what they believe when they come in the door. Everyone's welcome.''
     Of course – at ticket prices that top out at $450 – why wouldn't they be???
     But we have to think that the Stones can't be too thrilled that The Governator is threatening to upstage them as he heads to town, trailing controversy and protesters.
     Hundreds of California nurses are planning to picket Sunday's show to protest what they say are Schwarzenegger's Heart Of Stone health-care policies. They will be joined by a contingent of Massachusetts nurses, teachers, firefighters, and activists.

They exaggerated the part about 100's, it's really 12 to 15 flying out there, plus all our Massachusetts friends...